A survey released March 4, 2026, by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) found that 52% of Canadian small businesses no longer consider the U.S. a reliable trading partner, one year after U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect. That figure has risen from roughly 47% a year ago, reflecting a steady erosion of cross-border trust.
The findings are based on two surveys of CFIB members, one conducted in December 2025 (1,663 respondents) and another in February 2026 (1,379 respondents).
Perhaps the most striking number for U.S. businesses that sell to or partner with Canadian firms is this: 75% of Canadian small businesses now say tariff disputes have strained their relationships with U.S. partners or clients, up sharply from 49% in March 2025. Overall, 68% of Canadian small business owners report being negatively affected by U.S. tariffs.
Steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by both countries remain a major pain point, with 44% of Canadian small businesses reporting direct impact. The ongoing Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the free trade deal that governs most cross-border commerce, is scheduled for formal review with a target date of July 1, 2026. That review will be a key moment for the future of North American trade.
A February 20, 2026, U.S. Supreme Court decision struck down certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but CFIB noted this only helps the 27% of businesses affected by tariffs on non-CUSMA-compliant goods. Most Canadian exports already fall under CUSMA and were unaffected by the ruling.
For U.S. small businesses that rely on Canadian customers, suppliers, or partners, the signal is clear. Canadian firms are actively looking to reduce their dependence on U.S. trade. According to earlier CFIB research, two-thirds of Canadian businesses diversifying their supply chains are turning to Canadian alternatives first, with the EU and Mexico as secondary options.
If you work with Canadian partners or sell into that market, now is a good time to check in directly. Relationships that were stable a year ago may not be today. CUSMA’s July 1 review date is the next milestone to watch, as its outcome will shape cross-border supply chains for years.
